Sutanu Guru
What is the primary role of a major political party? Forget the jargon about service, nation building, “mohabbat ki dukan”, “sabka saath, sabka Vishwas” and all that rhetorical nonsense. Everyone sensible will agree with me that the fundamental right and duty of a major political party is to first win elections. It is only when a party wins elections that it can think of implementing its vision, agenda, ideology or program. If you fail to win elections, all you can do is protest, oppose and whine.
The BJP did that between 2004 and 2014. The Congress has been doing that since 2014. Elections are a lot about voter perceptions as much as data on economics. One dominant perception during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was that the Congress had become an anti-Hindu party. It didn’t matter whether the party was actually anti-Hindu or not. Enough voters were convinced it was, reducing it to a pathetic tally of 44 seats. A committee headed by senior Congress leader A. K. Anthony to examine reasons for the morale shattering defeat apparently identified perceptions about the Congress being anti-Hindu as a major factor.
What astonishes me is that the Congress seems to have learnt no lessons. I am referring to the horribly offensive and derogatory remarks against Sanatana Dharma or Hinduism recently by young DMK leader Udaynidhi Stalin, son of DMK supremo cum Tamil Nadu chief minister M. K. Stalin. Quite naturally, his remarks have triggered widespread protests and criticism. The DMK and its leaders are least bothered. In fact, they have doubled down on abusing Hinduism. Stalin Junior compared Sanatana with mosquitoes, malaria, dengue and Corona.
Another DMK leader A. Raja has gone a step ahead and says Sanatana is like Leprosy and HIV. Clearly, the DMK is least bothered about angry reactions coming from the rest of the country. The political dynamics and equations are such in Tamil Nadu that the DMK led alliance will sweep the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As a junior ally, the Congress too will benefit. In 2019, 8 out of the 52 seats won by the Congress came from Tamil Nadu. Almost certainly, the Congress will be the beneficiary of the crumbs thrown its way in Tamil Nadu in 2024.
But what about the rest of India? What has baffled, rather flabbergasted me is the behaviour of Congress as a party and the reaction of some of its leaders. In Karnataka, the son of Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge, Priyank Kharge seemingly endorsed Stalin Junior. Another leader and home minister G. Parameshwara went on to say that while one could identify founders of other major religions, no one knew how or by whom Hinduism was founded.
In other parts of India, the only Congress leader openly advocating Hinduism is Kamal Nath who is keen to defeat the Shivraj Singh Chauhan BJP in Madhya Pradesh. No other senior Congress leader has said publicly that offending Hinduism is not acceptable. It’s quite crazy, frankly. If I am not wrong, Mallikarjuna Kharge never lost an election between 1972 and 2019. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he lost to a BJP candidate by more than 92,000 votes. Is Priyank Kharge aware of this?
Sure the Congress might win 8 seats again from Tamil Nadu in 2024. But at what cost? As I have argued often with data, a viable alternative to the BJP in 2024 is possible only if the Congress wins at least 140 seats, compared to 52 in 2019. Look at the accompanying chart. It’s only hope to reach close to that mark is to do far better than the BJP in the 10 states shown in the chart. In all of them, the Congress (in alliance in Jharkhand) is in a direct contest with the BJP. Together, these states send about 170 members to the Lok Sabha.
In all these states, the BJP vote share in 2019 was in excess of 50%. The best performance of the Congress was in Chattisgarh where its vote share was 10% less than that of the BJP; in Himachal Pradesh, it was about 40% less. In other major states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal & Odisha, the Congress has no hope. Any sensible political strategist would have concentrated almost all focus on reversing the massive gap between the BJP and the Congress in these 10 states. Astonishingly, the public posturing and behaviour of senior Congress leaders suggests that they are neither bothered, nor worried.
It is indeed quite possible that the Congress will do well in assembly elections due soon in Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan. But its allegedly smart and savvy strategists forget that voters will behave very differently when it comes to Lok Sabha elections in 2024. I am certain Narendra Modi and his team will go all out to portray himself and the BJP as the warriors who stand against the anti-Hindu Congress. It won’t matter what the reality is. Voters in northern, western and central India will reinforce their perception that the Congress is anti-Hindu. And they will deliver a third successive humiliation to the Grand Old Party.
CVoter recently conducted the nationwide survey for the prestigious bi-annual Mood of the Nation special issue of the magazine India Today. In that survey, the Congress is seen as winning 75 seats in 2024. But post the suicidal behaviour of party leaders after the DMK keeps abusing Hinduism, even that number might prove to be difficult.
(Author has been a media professional for over 3 decades. He is now Executive Director, C Voter Foundation. Views are Personal)