Sutanu Guru
This question has baffled the author as virtually all political analysts and commentators in India keep insisting that Sharad Pawar is one of the most formidable and successful politicians in the country and a master strategist without any parallel.
On what basis do these wise folks come to such a conclusion? I personally think he is no doubt the tallest political leader in Maharashtra.
But he is a regional chieftain and despite the mysterious support he gets in the national media, Sharad Pawar has always been a regional chieftain with national ambitions that have never been fulfilled. As a matter of fact, he is a regional chieftain who has been far less successful than many other regional chieftains.
In my opinion, the most credible way to measure the worth and success of a political leader is the number of MLAs he-or she-is able to send to a state assembly and the number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. The ability of a leader to have any worthwhile influence on the political process and policy making depends on these numbers. The rest is useless noise generated in the media. Media noise can be completely deceptive. Look at the media coverage that AIMIM boss and Lok Sabha MP Assaduddin Owaisi gets.
Every provocative utterance of his gleefully showcased by television channels and then go viral on social media. You could be tempted to think Owaisi is a pan Indian mass Muslim leader who speaks for all Muslims in the country. That, of course is bunkum because data clearly shows he is a minor leader who can win in some pockets in and around Hyderabad.
I am convinced Sharad Pawar is not much different. Look at the data and numbers. Let’s start with the performance of Sharad Pawar as the supreme leader of a political party. In 1999, ostensibly claiming that he cannot support a “foreign born” Sonia Gandhi as the prime minister, Sharad Pawar broke away from the Congress to form his own Nationalist Congress Party. Some other Congress leaders like P. Sangma joined him but it soon became a de facto Maharashtra based regional party.
As the accompanying chart reveals, the best performance of the NCP under Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra assembly elections was in 1999 when it won about 23% of the popular vote share. It hasn’t ever touched or come close to a 20% vote share since then. In effect, Sharad Pawar was never in a position to rule even Maharashtra without forging an alliance. It did form an alliance with the Sonia Gandhi led Congress after the 1999 elections.
What about his performance as a national leader? Data shows that the claim of Sharad Pawar being one of the “tallest” Indian leaders is preposterous. The NCP has won 6 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, 9 in 2004, 8 in 2009 and 4 each in 2014 and 2019. How does someone who cannot even send 10 MPs into a house of 543 become a “tall national” leader? I can understand his fervent supporters spouting this kind of nonsense. But what has happened to political “pundits”?
Now compare the electoral performance of Sharad Pawar with other “regional” leaders. Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh have ruled Uttar Pradesh for about 15 years. Lalu Yadav, Rabri Devi and Tejasvi Yadav have lorded it over Bihar for about 20 years. Even Mayawati ensured that her party BSP won a majority in the UP assembly elections in 2007.
Jayalalitha, her rival M. Karunanidhi and his heir M. K. Stalin have alternatively ruled Tamil Nadu for more than three decades. Even a newbie like Arvind Kejriwal is far more successful than Sharad Pawar. His party AAP has won two massive mandates in Delhi, one massive mandate in Punjab and a 13% vote share in Gujarat.
The Election Commission of India now recognizes AAP as a national party while it has “demoted” NCP to regional party status. Compare the performance of Sharad Pawar with that of Naveen Patnaik who has led his party to a record five successive assembly election victories and you will realise why I think “experts” are talking gibberish when they hail Pawar as a master strategist and successful politician.
Now look at leaders who have broken away from the Congress and floated their own regional parties. K. C. Rao of BRS has won two consecutive assembly elections on his own in Telangana. Y. S. R. Jagan Mohan Reddy won the 2019 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections with a crushing majority. His YSR Congress has 22 Lok Sabha members, out of a maximum possible 25 compared to Sharad Pawar’s NCP which has 4 out of 48.
Then there is the mercurial Mamata Bannerjee who has led her party TMC to three consecutive assembly election triumphs in West Bengal. These leaders have retained their bastions even during the peak of the so called “Modi wave” over the last decade. In contrast, the NCP under Sharad Pawar is simply wilting away.
So don’t say that the betrayal by Ajit Pawar of his uncle and mentor has weakened Sharad Pawar. First, a 38 year old Sharad Pawar had betrayed his mentor Vasantdada Patil in 1978 to become Maharashtra Chief Minister. Second, Pawar has been weakening politically for almost three decades; punching far above his weight thanks to a benevolent media.
(Author has been a media professional for over 3 decades. He is now Executive Director, C Voter Foundation. Views are Personal)