OdishaPlus Bureau
There is a probability of formation of a low pressure area (LOPAR) over the southeast Bay of Bengal and nearby region by today which may gradually intensify into a deep depression by May 16, the Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) of SOA Deemed to be University, said. Though the low pressure area was likely to form today, its intensification could be very slow initially as it would be interrupted by high northwesterly upper atmospheric wind over Odisha and neighboring states, the CEC Director Dr. Sarat Chandra Sahu said.
The system might gradually intensify into a deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal away from the Tamil Nadu coast, he said adding models indicated its rapid intensification from May 16 night. However, there was no consistency among different models about the possible track of the system’s movement and its intensification. But there could be more clarity by May 15, he said.
Initial analysis showed that its movement over Bay of Bengal parallel to the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast might continue up to May 19 and it might come closer to West Bengal-Odisha coast either on May 19 or 20. Its subsequent intensification into a cyclonic storm could not be ruled out as favorable meteorological factors like low wind shear and sea surface temperature of around 30 degrees C could help it to intensify, he said.
Low wind shear, which means the difference of wind speed between upper and lower atmosphere, is required for intensification of the system. At present, the wind speed at upper atmosphere was very high whereas wind speed at lower atmosphere was low, Dr. Sahu said.
Meanwhile, the ‘Kalbaisakhi’ activity being experienced in several districts was likely to continue for the next 24 hours in south Odisha districts due to flow of northwesterly dry and hot wind in the upper atmosphere and warm and humid flow in lower atmosphere over the state and nearby regions.
The summer day temperature would hover between 35 to 40 degrees C up to Wednesday and temperature of over 40 degrees C would be experienced in interior Odisha districts till May 18 with the possibility of some stations registering near 45 degrees C thereafter. Very uncomfortable and humid weather may prevail over the state from May 16 onwards barring rainy days in the coastal districts between May 18 to 20, he said.